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对vovt操盘手roxy的文章的理解

一个偶然的机会,在论坛闲逛,得以一睹"索罗斯"兄贴的"An Interview with Roxy“,如获至宝,收藏之余,细细品味一周有余。好东东大家分享,但由于语言上转换有点麻烦,小弟才疏学浅,不敢班门造次。然,学之道,不进则退。面子虽然重要,为了得到大家批评指点,也顾不得了。


Roxy何许人也?


"《国际博彩经济杂志》-他是博彩业最具力量的25人之一;《GQ杂志》-他是体育史上最重要的50人之一;《每日田径报》-他是赌博业最具影响力的10人之一;拉斯维加斯最重要的人—《拉斯维加斯周报》集上述美誉于一身的迈克尔.罗克斯博罗可以称得上是博彩业的最具传奇色彩的风云人物。

 

世界体育博彩业开出的赔率为天下体育彩票迷参赌的标准,而体育彩票赔率又以他缔造的罗克希赔率最具权威性,如英超赔率、意甲赔率、丰田杯赔率、女足世界杯赔率等,都是以罗克希赔率为第一参照物,因此,以赌为生的越级富豪也被人们称为博彩业的"指南针"。

 

好,闲话不多说,将访谈中老前辈的一些话摘出来,并附上一些感想。如果翻译上有问题,请拍砖指正,以免误导,谢谢。

 

"We like to think it's a little art and a little science. We blend computer technology with subjective analysis. We use
computers to do all our datakeeping."

初盘(初赔)的设定带有艺术性和科学性。我们融合了计算机技术和操盘手的经验。依靠计算机进行数据处理。

 

感:
art(艺术)是人为的,science(科学)是自然界的,前者需要感觉,需要灵感,需要推断......后者需要数据,需要公式,需要模型......前者是活的,蛇眼可以知道怎么去画虾,但打死也画不过齐白石。后者是死的,一只羊加一只羊等于几只羊?蛇眼算出来是两只,爱因斯坦算出来肯定也是两只!


年纪大一点的人,打开电脑总觉得是一台电脑,年轻人倒更在乎程序。老前辈在这里提到的computer technology(计算机技术),可能有这样的意味。但后面紧接着谈及的"use computers to do all our datakeeping",就不得不再想多一点点了。这里我们可以知道,赔率设定时,science这方面的工作,必定形式很多样,内容很广泛,时间很持久,分工很复杂,看起来只好由电脑超人来完成了!"do datakeeping"?看来赔率的设定并非是一个简单的重复过程,而是一项系统工程。系统学学得不好,记得不牢。隐约记得包含了动力、组件、控制(反馈)、产出等要素。放到这里,赔率是一个产出;球队的实力、主客场因素、关键球员的伤停、主场优势、战意、职业赌客倾向等等是组件;实际投注资金流向是反馈;而博彩公司的资源(这里最主要的是操盘手的subjective analysis-综合研判)则是这个系统的动力。


听老前辈讲的,觉得开赔率有点像天气预报,至少,老前辈说与多年前相比,赔率是越来越准了,天气预报也是这样的。只不过,天气预报里,science的比重更大,而天气本身又属于science范畴,sports和betting都属于社会学范畴,这个是有区别的。那么赔率的设定,到底是art多一点点还是science多一点点呢?足球也好,棒球也好,毕竟不是地球公转自转!

 

Now we also have computerized power ratings for all the teams. We blend the computerized power ratings and the experience that our oddsmakers have.
所有的比赛我们都会计算详尽的技术统计(实力对比),然后再将操盘手的经验融合进来。


感:
技术统计得出的实力对比很重要,但只是问题的一部分。小米加步枪的神话是统计不出来的。

 

In pro football the computer power ratings are not that important.
在够级别的职业联赛里,计算得出的实力对比并非想像中的那么重要。

 

In the professional sports all the teams play in a closed universe; not only do they always have common opponents but they
keep playing each other numerous times and as a result I don't think power ratings are that important.
在职业联赛里,所有的球队共处一室,彼此之间相互熟悉,通常又会有一些小团体,所以我不觉得实力能说明多大的问题。

 

感:利益无处不在。短期利益,长期利益?小利益,大利益?表面利益,背后利益?个体利益,集团利益?孰轻孰重,何去何从?你能了解吗?你又能了解多少??

Things like injuries, home-field or home-court advantage, and weather are some of the ingredients that go into the recipe,
but they are certainly overshadowed by talent. Talent is the most important ingredient.


伤停、主场优势、天气等是除实力外影响赛果的因素,但它们通常会被球队的实力所掩盖。球队的实力是一个最重要的因素。

 

感:老前辈举了一些可以明说的东西,当然,也有一些不便明言的因素。"talent"可以认为是球队的实力,但进一步地也可以说包含了球队的魅力。"talent"是首要因素,砍刀的杀伤力总比水果刀要强的。而且它会掩盖一些问题,主场的AC米兰会被客场作战的利沃搞掉吗?从实力和战意上考虑会掩盖天气的问题。大雨!!雪,会激发英雄豪情,而雨,总让人不安!

 

The idea sometimes has been quoted that the oddsmaker's goal is to split the money with the line so that equal amounts are
wagered on both sides of a bet because then bookmakers will use losing bets to pay the winners while keeping the vigorish as profit. The odds don't necessarily agree with how we think the teams will perform. By and large, however, the two approaches become the same.
操盘手要做的是使两边的资金平衡,坐收无风险的水钱。赔率不必体现我们所判断的比赛结果,而应该使资金平衡。


The odds that split the betting action on the game actually coincide with how the teams perform. However, we may be a little
slow to move on certain trends because we follow the betting public rather than the teams' performance. If the betting
doesn't follow a new trend, then we may not change. I'll give you an example: If everybody is betting on the San Francisco
49ers but the San Francisco 49ers never cover the point spread, then this is not necessarily going to change the way we
handicap the game. We don't look at just the results; we like to handicap games by looking at the results for about 50% of
our information and the betting patterns for about 50% of it.
赔率、受注情况和赛果是关联的。赔率的变动取决于受注资金的流向而不是我们把握的赛果,我们必须谨慎而缓慢地根据资金流向去变动水位,从而影响资金的流向。如果投注额没有明显流向赢的一方,那么我们也没有必要去变动水位(赔率)。比如每个人都去下旧金山48人队而实际上它赢不了,我们可不会去变盘或者调动水位。我们并不只是盯着赛果,我们设定让球的时候,一半取决于赛果,一半取决于受注情况。

 

感:正应了一句话了,色即是空!

The reason you want to incorporate what professional bettors are doing into your line-making process is because, if they ever discover a form of betting "Holy Grail," perhaps some master computer program, then whatever they are getting from their
statistical analysis is going to show up in your line. So the door will be closed on them eventually. That's why there is no
such thing as the Holy Grail for beating professional sports; not only are sports volatile and changing all the time but
oddsmakers are incorporating what the serious money is doing into our analysis, so even if we don't know why they like a team or they don't like a team, it's going to end up in our ratings.

操盘总是在跟职业赌客对着干,因为某些超级牛X会找到一些公式而来"杀庄",那么,不管他们是怎么分析出来的,总是操盘手法上出了破绽。


这个时候,超级牛X们很快也没戏了。世上并不存在必赢绝技之类的东西,不仅因为世上没有相同的比赛,而且操盘手也会从受注资金上找到问题并立即解决,必赢绝技也就挂歇了。

 

感:没有人能告诉你如何看盘,因为你们共同的对手比你先知道,等你知道了,领会了,一切已经结束了。你能看到的,都是假的,只有你不知道的才是真的。

 

The things we are talking about now are called situational analysis, and what that means is that the situation can be more
important than the talent. It happens mostly in professional basketball and often revolves around travel because the travel
schedule is so brutal in professional basketball that it can actually equalize the talent. So if we have an idea or we have a
theory about something that may be affecting how the game is played, we'll go and take a look at it. We might need to make an adjustment or we might not.
这就是所谓的状态分析,状态有时候比实力更重要。比如,密集的赛事就会影响球队的状态。所有影响赛果的因素我们总要去研究的。这并不一定会影响我们的开盘,职业赌客也看到了的话,那我们得花点心思算计算计了。

 

感:也许赔率包含了一切信息,也许并没有什么信息,总之,赔率开来开去,你总觉得基本上跟你想的是一样的。

 

Results are so random in sports that you can never look at a result and say it must be fixed.
体育赛事里结果总是带有一些随机因素的,你永远也不能保证"这就是铁胆!"

 

感:什么时候把简单的搞复杂一点,什么时候把复杂的搞简单一点?


搞了半天,实力对比不可信,赔率也不可信,我靠!那信什么?!"a little art and a little science",你是否看到老前辈得意而狡黠的眼神了呢?

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